Last updated: 12:20 on 10th February 2015

Current status – Scotland would now vote Yes

On the 18th of September 2014, Scotland voted ‘No’ to independence by 55% to 45% in a referendum with a record 85% turnout after a campaign that energised the entire population.

However, the decision of the Scottish people at the time was based upon the information they had available – and political events since then have changed to provide a different Scotland now than we had then.

Support for independence has not dwindled since the referendum, and new developments such as the potential UK referendum on leaving the EU (the so-called ‘Brexit’ referendum) and the delivery of new devolved powers to the Scottish Parliament via the Smith Commission have meant that some have reconsidered their opinions.

This page covers opinion polls as to voting intentions if there was a second independence referendum and the public’s appetite for another vote.

All figures in polling averages/poll of polls here are subject to my methodology as well as the polling organisations’ proprietary methodology.


Polls have asked how people would vote in the event of another independence referendum.  Here is the current poll average for this question this question (with a margin of error of 2%):

Yes No Undecided
48% 46% 6%

And with undecided/don’t know voters excluded, the vote would be:

Yes No
51.37% 48.63%

Here are the polls that have contributed to the above poll averages:

Date Poll Comp. Sample Yes No Undecided
29 Jan – 2 Feb YouGov 1,001 49% 45% 7%
15-18 Dec Survation 1,001 48% 48% 4%

Polls have also asked when people believe that there should be another independence referendum, if at all.  Although the questions do not all align, here are the responses to them so far.

Should there be another independence referendum within five years?

Yes
46%

Based upon the following data:

Date Poll Comp. Sample Yes
6-13 Nov Survation 1,026 35%
22-29 Oct Ipsos MORI 1,001 58%

Should there be another independence referendum within ten years?

Yes
53%

Based upon the following data:

Date Poll Comp. Sample Yes
6-13 Nov Survation 1,001 48%
27-30 Oct YouGov 1,078 45%
22-29 Oct Ipsos MORI 1,026 66%

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