Last updated: 12:07 on 10th February 2015

Current prediction – SNP majority of 4 MSPs

Although well over a year away, the next Scottish Parliament election is already in the minds of Scottish politicians as they assess their positions after the independence referendum as focus turns to running the country and the potential new powers devolved to the Parliament via the Smith Commission.

Polling already exists as to voting intentions for the next Scottish Parliament, with both the constituency and regional vote being assessed.  This can be used to predict how the Parliament would look if the vote was held at the moment.

Constituency vote polling average:

SNP Lab Con LibDem UKIP Green Other
50% 27% 12% 4% 2% 4% 1%

Based upon the following data (with a margin of error of 2%):

Date Poll Comp. Sample SNP Lab Con LibDem UKIP Green Other
29 Jan – 2 Feb YouGov 1,001 51% 26% 12% 4% 2% 4% 0%
14 Jan – 2 Feb TNS-BMRB 1,006 47% 30% 12% 3% 1% 4% 1%
12-19 Jan Ipsos MORI 1,001 50% 26% 12% 5% 1% 5% 1%
12-16 Jan Survation 1,001 50% 26% 12% 6% 3% 3% 1%

Regional vote polling average:

SNP Lab Con LibDem UKIP Green Other
44% 24% 13% 5% 3% 9% 2%

Based upon the following data (with a margin of error of 2%):

Date Poll Comp. Sample SNP Lab Con LibDem UKIP Green Other
29 Jan – 2 Feb YouGov 1,001 44% 24% 12% 4% 3% 8% 4%
14 Jan – 2 Feb TNS-BMRB 1,006 44% 26% 13% 6% 1% 9% 1%
12-19 Jan Ipsos MORI 1,001 47% 24% 12% 4% 2% 9% 2%
12-16 Jan Survation 1,001 39% 23% 14% 7% 6% 10% 1%
Seat Prediction:

Taking into account a uniform national swing across the country from the 2011 vote to the current constituency polls and awarding seats according to the current shares of the regional votes, assuming the same turnout as last time and using the D’Hondt method, this is the current prediction for the number of seats each party will have after the 2016 Election:

Party Cons Region MSPs
SNP 67 2 69
Labour 5 27 32
Conservative 1 14 15
Lib Dem 1 4 5
Green 0 9 9
UKIP 0 0 0

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