Last updated: 11:59 on 10th February 2015

Current prediction: Hung parliament – Labour 39 MPs short of a majority

On the 7th May 2015 the UK will go to the polls for the General Election, after five years of being ruled by a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition.  It’s shaping up to be a fascinating election, with Labour shaping up to challenge for power again and the emergence of UKIP as a potential fourth force in British politics.

Until the actual vote, the only measures of potential success we have is opinion polls.  These provide a relatively accurate representation of public opinion towards the main political parties, and can be used to model how the general election will go.

As with my poll of polls for the Scottish independence referendum, my General Election poll of polls will take an average of the most recent polls from members of the British Polling Council and its invitees from the last month.  These are currently: ComRes, ICM, Ipsos Mori, Opinium, Populus, Survation, YouGov and Lord Ashcroft.  As both Populus and YouGov publish regular polls, we are using an average of their most recent two and three polls respectively.  You can find my methodology in full elsewhere on site.

With this election, though, we can also map more detailed results – as we have subsamples from England, Scotland and Wales to use.  Using this data, we can predict the state of the parties more accurately and when applying the changes in opinion to the last election results we can predict how many seats each party stands to gain or lose.


Here is the current poll of polls across Great Britain (with a margin of error of 1%):

Con Lab LibDem UKIP Green Other
32% 33% 7% 16% 6% 6%

These figures come from a combination of the following polls, weighted by sample size:

Date Poll Comp. Sample Con Lab LibDem UKIP Green Other
4-9 Feb YouGov A* 2,470 33% 33% 8% 15% 7% 5%
4-8 Feb Populus A** 3,044 32% 34% 8% 16% 5% 5%
6-8 Feb Lord Ashcroft 1,003 34% 31% 8% 14% 7% 5%
3-6 Feb Opinium 1,947 32% 34% 7% 15% 8% 6%
29 Jan -2 Feb TNS-BMRB 1,182 27% 33% 6% 18% 8% 7%
23-25 Jan ComRES 1,001 31% 30% 8% 17% 7% 7%
25-Jan Survation 1,014 32% 30% 6% 23% 3% 6%
16-19 Jan ICM 1,002 29% 35% 8% 12% 9% 7%

* YouGov A is an average of the last three daily YouGov polls, with a sample size bonus.

** Populus A is an average of the last two Populus polls, with a sample bonus.

Here is the current trend of the polls GB-wide:

Last updated: 10th February
Last updated: 10th February

Luckily Scotland is always considered as it’s own subsample for these polling organisations, and the SNP commissioned a large Scotland-only poll – giving us relatively solid data on Scotland’s polling intentions:

Here is the poll of polls for Scotland (with a margin of error of 2%):

SNP Lab Con LibDem UKIP Green Other
44% 27% 15% 5% 3% 4% 1%

Here are the polls used for these figures:

Date Poll Comp. Sample SNP Lab Con LibDem UKIP Green Other
4-9 Feb YouGov A* 224 39% 25% 20% 5% 4% 4% 1%
4-8 Feb Populus A** 266 43% 30% 16% 8% 1% 2% 1%
6-8 Feb Lord Ashcroft 91 46% 23% 20% 3% 3% 3% 1%
3-6 Feb Opinium 139 38% 27% 19% 3% 5% 7% 0%
29 Jan – 2 Feb YouGov S 1,001 48% 27% 15% 8% 4% 3% 1%
14 Jan – 2 Feb TNS-BMRB S 1,006 41% 31% 16% 4% 2% 6% 1%
23-25 Jan ComRES 95 50% 26% 14% 5% 1% 4% 0%
25-Jan Survation 77 48% 25% 12% 7% 9% 0% 0%
16-19 Jan ICM 90 52% 24% 13% 11% 0% 0% 0%
12-19 Jan Ipsos MORI S 1,001 53% 24% 12% 4% 1% 4% 2%
12-16 Jan Survation S 1,006 46% 26% 14% 7% 4% 3% 1%
9-14 Jan Panelbase S 1,007 41% 31% 14% 3% 7% 3% 0%

* YouGov A is an average of the two three daily YouGov polls, with a sample size bonus

** Populus A is an average of the last two Populus polls, with a sample size bonus

N.B.: All polls with an S following the polling organisation name are full-scale Scottish-only polls

Here is the current trend of the polls Scotland wide:

sco-poll-10-feb


For England and Wales there is a problem that Wales is often considered alongside regions of England where polling is concerned.  Two pollsters however, ICM and Survation, do consider them separately.

Here are the results for England (with a margin of error of 2%):

Con Lab LibDem UKIP Green Other
34% 33% 7% 17% 7% 1%

Here are the figures from the polls:

Date Poll Comp. Sample Con Lab LibDem UKIP Green Other
6-8 Feb Lord Ashcroft 860 36% 31% 9% 16% 7% 1%
3-6 Feb Opinium 1,229 33% 35% 7% 15% 8% 2%
25-Jan Survation 890 34% 30% 6% 26% 4% 1%
16-19 Jan ICM 863 35% 32% 8% 14% 10% 1%

Here is the current poll of polls for Welsh voting intentions (with a margin of error of 3%):

Lab Con LibDem Plaid UKIP Green Other
36% 23% 6% 11% 16% 7% 1%

The results from the Welsh poll of polls come from the following figures:

Date Poll Comp. Sample Lab Con LibDem Plaid UKIP Green Other
3-6 Feb Opinium 72 29% 27% 7% 8% 24% 4% 1%
25-Jan Survation 47 46% 27% 6% 11% 7% 3% 0%
19-21 Jan YouGov 1,036 37% 23% 6% 11% 16% 8% 1%
16-19 Jan ICM 49 49% 8% 10% 21% 5% 7% 0%

Northern Ireland is often not included in GB polls as they have a different range of political parties.  For now, there is only one recent Northern Ireland-wide poll on voting intentions for the 2015 General Election (with a margin of error of 3%):

Date Poll Comp. Sample DUP SF SDLP UUP Alliance Other
11-24 Sep Talk 1089 26% 24% 15% 12% 6% 17%

Using the poll-of-polls in each constituent country, I’ve calculated the swing towards each party.  Going on from there and applying this swing nationally to each constituency, this is the prediction in terms of seats for the 2015 General Election (with the target to form a majority government being 326):

Party MPs Change
Conservatives 264 -39
Labour 287 30
Lib Dems 18 -40
SNP 52 46
Plaid Cymru 3 0
UKIP 5 3
Green 1 0
Sinn Fein 5 -3
DUP 9 6
SDLP 3 3
UUP 1 -1
Independents 0 0
Other 2 2

In Scotland, the share of MPs would be as follows:

Party MPs Change
SNP 52 46
Labour 5 -36
Lib Dems 1 -10
Conservatives 1 0
Green 0 0

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