This page was designed to act as a guide to opinion in Scotland towards the independence referendum, taking an average of seven of the leading opinion poll companies’ latest polls on voters’ intentions for the referendum. This average was more balanced, as some polling organisations tended to provide results skewed for or against independence, and was also less event-based, taking opinion over time rather than after specific campaign points. Overall, I hope this poll of polls gives you more of an idea at how Scotland was shaping up to vote.
The seven polling companies used for the purpose of this table are: Ipsos MORI, Panelbase, ICM, Survation, TNS, YouGov and Opinium. All credit for polling data goes to these organisations. Some poll data was found via the UK Polling Report and What Scotland Thinks. Please note that all percentage figures are subject to rounding, and therefore may not add up to 100%.
These were the final polls from each organisation: (Last updated: 17:53 on 18th September 2014):
|16-17 Sep||Ipsos Mori||991||45%||50%||4%|
|27 Aug – 4 Sep||TNS||990||38%||39%||23%|
Taking an average of these values gives us a more rounded look at the current position of Scots with regards to their voting intentions for the referendum:
Another important measure is to look at how the vote would shape up if you disregard all undecided voters from opinion polls and look at those certain to vote either Yes or No:An average, weighted to give an equal sample size, produces the following average results:
To make some sense of how the campaign is going, here are some graphs showing the way the polls have changed over the last year:
Here is the current track of the polls over the last year with Don’t Knows excluded from the results:
These polls show that the race is almost too close to call, with a typical margin of error of 3% meaning that either campaign could claim to be dominant at the moment. As such, it’s important to take polls with a pinch of salt – although they do show the general trend in how support for the campaigns is shifting, and as you can see it shows that the shift is clearly towards a Yes vote.